A 2023 paper written by World Forest ID data analyst, Dr. Jakub Truszkowski has been published by the journal, Ecological Applications. The study explores the utility of a relatively limited set of just 87 tree samples across a range of around 1.47 million square miles, analyzed for Stable Isotope Ratio Analysis (SIRA) data, in developing a preliminary American oak origin model. Even with this limited dataset across the vast range of U.S. oak forests, the model was shown to be capable of identifying the harvest location of unknown-origin oak to within 323 miles of its true harvest GPS point. The research was the foundation for more recent data science work tracing Russian timber, which was published in 2024 in Nature Plants and covered in the media by The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and The Financial Times.
The ability to verify American origin oak is critical to protecting U.S. forestry interests in the face of pressure from lower-cost, often illegal, forestry operations globally. A seminal study from the American Forest & Paper Association showed that illegal wood in global markets depresses timber prices by between 7 and 16%, impacting the livelihoods of American foresters and undermining the case for sustainable management of forestland.
The spatially variable isotope ratio values used to train Dr. Truszkowski’s model were measured by Agroisolab Gmbh, creating a complementary dataset to the wider World Forest ID reference data for oak species, derived from ground-truthed samples collected across Europe, Russia, Belarus, and the Caucasus. The Eurasian reference model has been used by governments and companies to ensure compliance with timber trade laws and sanctions. Next steps for the work will be to fuse both datasets in a new iteration of the model, which is expected to significantly improve accuracy and precision.
Scot McQueen, Senior Technology Officer at FSC and President of the World Forest ID Board notes, “Transforming raw reference samples into data, and modeling that to create a tool that end users can rely on is a significant step forward, providing a practical approach that strengthens traceability across supply chains. This technology is especially important as it has the potential to scale globally. Nothing else does that.”
The scientific approach is particularly valuable when dealing with forest products processed in or transited through third countries. In 2023, the U.S. imported over $12 billion in wooden furniture from Asian markets like Vietnam and China, according to UN Comtrade. While U.S. companies exported $538 million in oak logs and sawn wood to these countries, processing companies in Asia also source oak from other suppliers, including Belarus and Russia, raising concerns about legality and ethics. Consumers in the U.S. and EU increasingly want to verify the harvest country of oak in products from China and Vietnam as awareness of the consequences of ‘laundering’ grows.
As Jason Grant, Manager of Corporate Engagement in the Forest Team at World Wildlife Fund, puts it: “What’s great about using science to verify timber origin is that it gives retailers real confidence in their supply chain—when it says American oak, they know that’s exactly what they’re getting.”
